My vain attempt to keep the body together has failed! A couple of weeks of physio to try to cut off the impending doom was just too little too late. A few issues stabilized and a few improved, but the main root issue - tight nerve through the left butt, has been very up and down. It has seen some improvement , the regresses back to previous state. Then on a longer run, it finally manifest itself as an injury - calf popped again. Came on with little warning when running pretty slowly. A walk home in the rain as it was getting dark did not help the mood either. So going into worlds injured is not ideal, but I just have to make the most of the situation. Physio plays around with the butt a couple of times a week, and it will be going into Worlds with a couple of 15min runs under the belt in the last 2 weeks.
What am I going to do at worlds? I have just found out that my wave will be the last to start. That does alter tactics a little, as our wave will have to contend with passing slower athletes from the waves ahead, and as we start around 45min behind the elites, we may become entangled in other waves as they come through for their second and third laps when we are on our first/second laps. There is a 12m drafting zone, and with a 4 lap bike course, there will be a certain amount of chaos, on the bike in particular. With only 40-44 year males in our wave, there will probably be a small group of fast swimmers, then a reasonable group of solid swimmers - of which hopefully I am one of. Second main pace would be good, perhaps 2-3 minutes down on any very faster swimmers. The wave in front starts 10 minutes before us, so hopefully clear water for the first half of the swim, and then just passing a few stragglers on the return. If I come out on my own or in a very small group I will do the first lap of the bike at a steady pace, and then into the chaos as we mingle with the other waves. If I come out of the swim with a reasonable group, then it will be a solid effort at the start of the bike and try to clear out a little in the first 5km. I am sure that on the second lap onward, there will be a lot more traffic issues, perhaps even on the first lap. Once there are more people around, from different waves, and going at different speeds, I will need to be quite focused on riding tactically as well as metering out the correct effort. There will be the issues of not getting caught up in a big group and being busted for drafting, safety of riders of very different abilities on the course at the same time - so you could be passing a slower rider while being passed by a faster rider at the same time. Some riders will not be able to hold a straight line very well, and will be use to riding on the other side of the road. Then there will be negotiating the aid stations - which you have no idea how busy or well organised they will be. Hopefully I will be able to ride a solid first 40-50km, but at some stage I am expecting my butt to tighten up a little and lose a bit of power out of the left leg, and might have to have a few breaks from the aero bars. Hopefully this does not time in with a tactical need for a good solid effort. I am planning on getting in a good amount of fluid and gels on the bike, to make sure I am in pretty good shape for the run. I am planning on starting the run quite easy and building into it, trying to really focus on faster leg turn-over and really looking after the calf. Hopefully I can run when I want to. I am prepared to do a few shorter walks in the run, even if it is 4-5min run with a 30second to 1 minute walk between run efforts. I am planning to walk most of the aid stations - more to give the calf a rest, but making sure I get fluids in is a bonus. The short walks will probably allow me to run better when I do run, and allow me to run for more of the run overall. I am hoping I don't pull up lame on the run, but there is probably a reasonable chance I will (40-50%), and then it will be more walk and less run.
I think my performance will be significantly determined by the fragile-ness of the butt and calf. But if all goes reasonably well I figure I can go similar time wise to a half ironman. The swim is a bit longer (3km instead of 2) and the bike is a bit shorter (80 instead of 90km) and the run similar (20 rather than 21). So around 4 hours 10minutes on a good day (maybe just under if the leg actually behaves) and around 4hr20min if it is a bit of an average day. I would think that under 4hr10min will give a top 5 and under 4hr25min will be around top 10 in my age category. There will be some very fast old buggers no doubt!
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